President Donald Trump is entering the final stretch before the 2026 midterm elections with his approval rating at a political low, leaving Republicans facing a difficult question about whether the president can remain an electoral asset as they defend narrow congressional majorities.
With two months until Election Day, dissatisfaction with the economy and the war in Iran is weighing on Trump’s standing. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at 33%, his lowest rating in the survey during his political career. Voters also gave Democrats an advantage when asked which party they would support in congressional elections.
The political problem for Republicans is larger than Trump’s personal approval rating. Midterm elections often become a referendum on the president, and Democrats are already showing greater enthusiasm about voting.
Forty-six percent of self-identified Democrats in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 31% of Republicans. Independents also currently lean towards Democratic candidates, giving the party another potential source of support in competitive districts.
The numbers give Democrats an opening as they try to regain control of the House and potentially the Senate.
A Democratic House majority would significantly change the political environment for Trump’s administration. Democratic lawmakers would gain the power to launch investigations into the administration and could force the White House to negotiate over major legislation.
The Senate presents a more difficult challenge. Republicans benefit from the Senate map and other structural advantages, even as several Republican-held seats have become competitive.
Nine races are emerging as the central contests for control of the chamber. They include Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Michigan, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Maine, alongside competitive races in Georgia, Ohio and New Hampshire. Democrats would need to make substantial gains to take control.
The House map is somewhat more favourable to Democrats. Reuters identifies about 50 competitive House races, with Democrats needing to gain only three seats to secure a majority. Redistricting in states including California, Florida and other battlegrounds could determine how difficult that task becomes.
That makes Trump’s standing particularly important. Republican candidates can benefit from his ability to mobilise the party’s base, but they also risk inheriting his weaknesses among voters who remain concerned about inflation, immigration and foreign policy.
The economy may prove the most important of those problems.
Despite signs of continued employment growth, voters remain dissatisfied with the cost of living. Gasoline prices have risen sharply since the United States began its military campaign against Iran, while the conflict has disrupted energy markets and increased concerns about inflation. Seventy-one percent of respondents in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of living costs.
The Iran war creates a second political vulnerability because voters are not simply assessing its foreign-policy consequences. They are experiencing its economic effects through fuel prices and wider inflation.
Only 36% of Americans in the Reuters/Ipsos survey approved of the war, suggesting that the administration has yet to persuade a majority of voters that the military campaign is producing benefits that justify its costs.
Republicans therefore face a delicate campaign strategy. They must defend Trump’s record without allowing the election to become entirely a referendum on his presidency.
Trump remains the central figure in the Republican Party, making separation difficult. His political influence can bring conservative voters to the polls, but his low approval also gives Democrats an effective argument in competitive districts.
The coming weeks will show whether that tension changes the campaign. If voters continue to prioritise affordability and the economic consequences of the Iran war, Republican candidates may have to defend themselves against problems they cannot easily localise to individual districts.
The midterms are still two months away, and Republicans retain important structural advantages. But the early contours of the campaign suggest that Trump’s political standing could become one of the party’s biggest liabilities just as candidates enter the final stretch.
